Crapshoot

The Daytona 500, besides being the richest and most visible NASCAR Winston Cup event on the schedule each year, is also in gambling parlance, the opening roll to establish the "point."

Doing well at Daytona is usually the key to a successful season, although defending Winston Cup champion Tony Stewart pretty much blew that argument into a cocked hat last season. He lasted just three laps before the engine in his Home Depot Pontiac "crapped" out, leaving him 43rd heading into Rockingham.

The trouble with making any sort of odds bet on a driver or team to win the title these days is parity. Once considered a dirty word in all of sports, parity is now the yardstick by which all sports are measured. In short, dynasties are a thing of the past.

There are many reasons for this in the world of NASCAR. Chief among them perhaps is cubic cash. So many teams have such good funding, it's hard to buy yourself an advantage anymore. Add to that heavy manufacturer support across the board and you've got a recipe that depends heavily upon luck in determining a champion.

Another factor is the very narrow technological box that NASCAR teams find themselves operating within. There aren't that many ways to skin a cat, and when you haven't the benefit of the tools to go outside the box, then it becomes a matter of making the most of the technology at hand. The team that does the best job of that is usually the Winston Cup champion.

One more reason parity is the name of the game is strictly political. NASCAR cannot allow Dodge, Chevrolet, Pontiac, or Ford to have too much of a technological advantage or the other manufacturers get miffed and go home. It's happened before, although these days it's almost inconceivable that one manufacturer would quit the series. There's too much to be gained from success on Sundays.

As for determining who has the best shot at the 2003 title, otherwise known as the "Jackpot," it is indeed a roll of the dice. Stewart, prior to his inaugural title run last year, was mentioned as a title contender, but not many felt that Mark Martin, who lost the title to Stewart by 59 points after the last race of the season, had much of a shot at anything close to the Top 10.

So step up to the table and get ready to play. Maybe you'll have a little luck on your side and you'll make out like a bandit. Place your bets on any of these contenders for the 2003 NASCAR Winston Cup title:

* Tony Stewart: A whole lot of people said he couldn't keep it together long enough to win the title; that his temper or temperament would waylay him before it came time to collect the loot in New York City. Despite his temper getting the best of him on several occasions, he held it together just fine. He's a favorite for a repeat, provided everything goes well with the switch from Pontiac to Chevrolet. Motivation shouldn't be a factor ... he has plenty, if only to prove his doubters doubly wrong. Of course, $4 million in winnings isn't bad motivation, either.

* Mark Martin: Perhaps the sentimental favorite for a championship, he's missed being a two-time winner by a combined 115 points. One thing about Martin is, he'll get everything that's in the car out of it and he'll finish races. That's traditionally the key to winning titles in NASCAR: You don't have to win every race, but you do have to string together Top-10s and Top-5s like so much popcorn on a Christmas tree. He'll be back with Pfizer, Ford, and Jack Roush, with Ben Leslie calling the shots.

* Jeff Gordon: Always the wild card, the 32-year-old Gordon is still the stick by which all the rest are measured. He's the only four-time champion in the field, and he's always a threat to make it five. Gordon's 2002 season was not one of the ones he'll highlight when the time comes to remember such things, but considering he went through a 31-race winless streak, a divorce, and the two most dreaded words in Winston Cup lately--aero push--he'll always be a contender.

* Rusty Wallace: We'll see what the switch to the Dodge Intrepid will do for Wallace, who saw his 16-year streak with at least one victory end in 2002. It wasn't like he never sniffed the Top 10 (he finished second four times) but he never seemed to get that one bit of good luck to get him to Victory Lane. New crew chief Billy Wilburn has a year under his belt, and these two will make some noise in 2003.

* Jimmie Johnson: A couple of bad breaks go away and you're looking at the 2002 Winston Cup champion. The California Kid won three races last year and led the points as late as Rockingham before fading over the final two races in his Lowe's Chevy. The sophomore jinx might have something to do with his title hopes, but it didn't seem to bother Jeff Gordon in his second season, so smart money banks on that.

* Ryan Newman: Rusty's teammate and Rookie of the Year, Newman is another who might have a title shot. An engineer by education, Newman is a rare duck in the Alan Kulwicki mode who is able to make calls from the cockpit based on something other than feel. He is a prodigious qualifier, too, so working out the wrinkles is going to be a snap for the young Hoosier.

* Matt Kenseth: Last year's leading winner, Kenseth needs to overcome his propensity for inconsistent finishes to make a title run. When he was on, it was lights out. When he wasn't, it was as if he didn't exist. If he and Robbie Reiser can win when possible and finish in the Top 10 when it isn't, he's closer to even money.

* Kurt Busch: The one man who didn't want 2002 to end, Busch was on fire over the last third of the season. He won three of the last five races of the season and made a major move in the points, giving Jack Roush three of the Top-10 spots on the stage in New York. If he can maintain that momentum, he'll be as close to a sure thing as there is in this game. If he can't, he'll still be in the mix.

* Sterling Marlin: The man who led the points the majority of the season had the bad fortune of missing the final seven races due to a cracked vertebrae in his neck. Had he not sustained that injury, he could very well be the champion, not Stewart. How will he rebound after coming seven races shy of his first Winston Cup? It's a good bet that the Coors Light Dodge will be right in the thick of things again in 2003.

* Dale Jarrett: The 1999 champ showed flashes of brilliance in 2002, but they were too few and far between to matter. A new teammate in Elliott Sadler, who doesn't have the star power of Ricky Rudd, might go a long way toward helping the powerful Yates team regain its championship luster.