Gaughan's past success hasn't...
Gaughan's past success hasn't translated to success in Nextel Cup.
Given the right set of circumstances, Kahne could be a title contender this season. After a 41st Place showing at Daytona, he went on a tear, finishing Second, Second, Third, and Third in the next four races before a 40th Place showing at Bristol. Then came the runner-up at Texas, which gave him five Top 3 finishes in seven races.
He cooled off then, finishing no better than 12th (at Lowe's Motor Speedway) until Michigan. His worst finish in that stretch was a 30th at Talladega, and his average finish this season has been 15.6. That's a number a lot of veterans would like to be looking at right now.
All this has left him 11th in points, 399 behind leader Jimmie Johnson with still more than half the races to run. Given the new points format this season, which sets the Top 10 in points plus all those within 400 points of the leader apart in a race for the Nextel Cup, Kahne has a fairly good shot of being one of the lucky 10 at the end of the season. Once that split is made, anything can happen, and Kahne has shown he's capable of going on a tear. A 10-race, winner-take-all shootout for the title gives just about everyone a decent shot at the title, and Kahne will likely be in the mix.
Conclusions
Kasey Kahne is the class of the rookie field-period, end of story. His performance during the first 15 races is reminiscent of those turned in by Stewart, Johnson, and Newman, and he has the team behind him to make it stick.
Brian Vickers, just 20 years old, has a bright future ahead and is with one of the best teams in the business. It must be stated, however, that the team he's driving for has, in recent years, been the poor stepsister of the powerful Hendrick contingent. That said, it's likely Vickers might emerge a contender in later races, but he is likely to hit his stride in the coming seasons, not in 2004.
Wimmer has shown he can race with the big boys, but at times he has also shown he can be just as lost as a race fan on the backroads at Pocono.
The No. 25 Hendrick Motorsports...
The No. 25 Hendrick Motorsports team has operated in the shadows of Hendrick's marquee teams, Gordon's No. 24 and Jimmie Johnson's No. 48.
Gaughan, with the resources of Penske Racing behind him and teammates such as Rusty Wallace and Newman, is one whose fortunes can go either way. He made quite a splash in the Truck Series, losing the title in the final race last year. But the Cup Series is not the Truck Series, and it might take a while for Gaughan to make his mark.
Riggs is another whose fortunes are aloft on the fickle winds of fate, if not politics. He certainly has the credentials, and his team has shown it can win races, but whether Riggs is the driver to take them there is still open to discussion.
There's your Cup Rookie Report for the first half of 2004. So far, it's been Kasey Kahne from the get-go. Don't expect that to change much. It's almost a mortal lock that Kahne winds up Rookie of the Year, and he could wind up in Victory Lane at any moment, too, if not in New York at the annual awards banquet.